Indonesian Economy to Grow 5.2% in First Semester: Finance Minister
"Moreover, for the second semester of 2022, it is estimated to reach 4.9 percent to 5.5 percent," Minister Indrawati noted during a meeting with the Budget Agency of the House of Representatives, as accessed here on Friday.
The minister forecast that the economy would grow within the range of 4.9 percent to 5.4 percent in the entire year owing to public consumption, which grew better, and hence, recorded an increase.
Despite the good news, Indrawati warned of the risk of domestic inflation that could compromise the development of household consumption and investment, especially if Bank Indonesia's benchmark interest rate hiked up.
The minister also estimated that inflation would be slightly strained in the second semester of 2022 at the rate of 3.5 percent to 4.5 percent. Thus, in the entire year, the rate would be in the range of 3.5 percent to 4.5 percent.
Another basic macroeconomic assumption is that interest rates for 10-year tenor securities were also likely to experience upward pressure in the second semester of 2022, in the range of 6.83 percent to 8.56 percent. As for the entire year, it was estimated to lie between 6.85 and 8.42 percent.
"The rupiah exchange rate is also under a bit of pressure, with the US dollar index seeing some (increase in value), so in the second semester of 2022, it will be between (the range of) Rp14,180 per US dollar to Rp14,925 per US dollar, and for the whole year, at Rp14,300 per US dollar to Rp14,700 per US dollar," she elaborated.
She projected that the price of national crude oil in the second half of 2022 would be in the range of US$90 per barrel to US$105 per barrel, so for the entire year, it would lie in the range of US$95 per barrel to US$105 per barrel.
The realization of oil and gas lifting was likely to reach 635 thousand to 703 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day and 956 thousand to 1.036 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, respectively, in the second semester of 2022, as well as the entire year.
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