Remittance flows to low and middle-income countries (LMICs) are projected to fall by 7 percent, to $508 billion in 2020, followed by a further decline of 7.5 percent, to $470 billion in 2021.
The foremost factors driving the decline in remittances include weak economic growth and employment levels in migrant-hosting countries, weak oil prices; and depreciation of the currencies of remittance-source countries against the US dollar.
"The impact of covid-19 is pervasive when viewed through a migration lens as it affects migrants and their families who rely on remittances," said Mamta Murthi, Vice President for Human Development and Chair of the Migration Steering Group of the World Bank, in a press release issued on Thurday.
"The World Bank will continue working with partners and countries to keep the remittance lifeline flowing, and to help sustain human capital development," Murthi stated.
The declines in 2020 and 2021 will affect all regions, with the steepest drop expected in Europe and Central Asia (by 16 percent and 8 percent, respectively), followed by East Asia and the Pacific (11 percent and 4 percent), the Middle East and North Africa (8 percent and 8 percent), Sub-Saharan Africa (9 percent and 6 percent), South Asia (4 percent and 11 percent), and Latin America and the Caribbean (0.2 percent and 8 percent).
The importance of remittances as a source of external financing for LMICs is expected to amplify in 2020, even with the expected decline. Remittance flows to LMICs touched a record high of $548 billion in 2019, larger than foreign direct investment flows ($534 billion) and overseas development assistance (about $166 billion). The gap between remittance flows and FDI is expected to widen further as FDI is expected to decline more sharply.
Remittance flows to the East Asia and Pacific region are projected to fall by 11 percent in 2020 to $131 billion due to the adverse impact of covid-19. China and the Philippines are the region’s top recipients, while as a share of GDP, the top recipients are Tonga and Samoa. Remittance costs: The average cost of sending $200 to the region increased slightly to 7.1 percent in the third quarter of 2020. The five lowest-cost corridors in the region averaged 2.5 percent, while the five highest-cost corridors, excluding South Africa to China, which is an outlier, averaged 13.3 percent.